🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours to go.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|