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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.